Randomized smoothing is a popular certified defense against adversarial attacks.

When deploying a machine learning model in production, it is common to encounter changes in the data distribution, such as shifts in covariates [Shimodaira, 2000], labels [Saerens et al., 2002,

A graph G is a collection of nodes and links connecting pairs of nodes.

Inference on the conditional mean function (CMF) is central to tasks from adaptive experimentation to optimal treatment assignment and algorithmic fairness auditing. In this work, we provide a novel asymptotic anytime-valid test for a CMF global null (e.g., that all conditional means are zero) and contrasts between CMFs, enabling experimenters to make high confidence decisions at any time during the experiment beyond a minimum sample size. We provide mild conditions under which our tests achieve (i) asymptotic type-I error guarantees, (i) power one, and, unlike past tests, (iii) optimal sample complexity relative to a Gaussian location testing. By inverting our tests, we show how to construct function-valued asymptotic confidence sequences for the CMF and contrasts thereof. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world data show our method is well-powered across various distributions while preserving the nominal error rate under continuous monitoring.

The importance-weighted extension is appropriate for estimating complete counterfactual distributions of rewards given data from a randomized experiment, e.g.,

We present a principled framework for confidence estimation in computed tomography (CT) reconstruction. Based on the sequential likelihood mixing framework (Kirschner et al., 2025), we establish confidence regions with theoretical coverage guarantees for deep-learning-based CT reconstructions. We consider a realistic forward model following the Beer-Lambert law, i.e., a log-linear forward model with Poisson noise, closely reflecting clinical and scientific imaging conditions. The framework is general and applies to both classical algorithms and deep learning reconstruction methods, including U-Nets, U-Net ensembles, and generative Diffusion models. Empirically, we demonstrate that deep reconstruction methods yield substantially tighter confidence regions than classical reconstructions, without sacrificing theoretical coverage guarantees. Our approach allows the detection of hallucinations in reconstructed images and provides interpretable visualizations of confidence regions. This establishes deep models not only as powerful estimators, but also as reliable tools for uncertainty-aware medical imaging.